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The Determinants of Money Supply in Sudan: Empirical Assessment Based on an Application of the (ARDL) Model (1980-2016)
Current Issue
Volume 8, 2020
Issue 1 (March)
Pages: 1-10   |   Vol. 8, No. 1, March 2020   |   Follow on         
Paper in PDF Downloads: 42   Since Mar. 23, 2020 Views: 404   Since Mar. 23, 2020
Authors
[1]
Badr Eldeen Abdalmalik Alhaj, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Commercial Studies, University of Kordofan, Elobeid, Sudan.
[2]
Adam Yagoub Abker, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Economics & Commercial Studies, University of Kordofan, Elobeid, Sudan.
[3]
Mustafa Adam Mohammed, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Economics & Commercial Studies, University of Kordofan, Elobeid, Sudan.
Abstract
The objective of the study is to examine the empirical evidence of the existence of a long-run and short-run relationship between money supply and it is determinants (GDP growth, exchange rate, domestic investment, inflation rate, exports, cost of finance, foreign direct investment and government spending) in Sudan. The method has been employed to annual time series data covering the period (1980-2016), which are collected from the Central Bank of Sudan and Central Bureau of Statistics. This method is Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach associated error correction method (ECM) using Eviews package Version 10. The results indicate that real GDP and real government spending have positive and statistically significant effects on real money supply in the long run and short run, while real exports have negative and statistically significant effects on real money supply just in the long run. As well asexchange rate, real domestic investment, inflation, and foreign direct investment have positive and statistically insignificant effects on real money supply in the long run and short run. While the cost of finance has negative and statistically insignificant effects on real money supply in the long run and short run. Since real GDP, government spending and exports are found to be key determinants of money supply in Sudan. The results showed that the adjustment coefficient (EC-1) with a negative sign and statistically significant, these findings indicate that the presence of an error correction mechanism works in this form. The coefficients of EC-1 are equal to (-0.99) and imply that deviation from the long-term real money supply is corrected by only 99% percent in the model. The study recommended thatthe government should employ a suitable monetary policy so as to encourage financial integration with all sectors of the economy that will enhance positive outcome to the country.
Keywords
Moneysupply, Domestic Investment, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
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